The model has called 65% of 71 2026/27 games right · always picking the home side: 55%
Sat 24 Oct
Sun 25 Oct
- 14:45Vienna CapitalsVIC
48%52%
Moser Medical Graz99ersG99Regulation: VIC 39% · level 18% · G99 43% - 15:00EC Red Bull SalzburgRBS
82%18%
Pioneers VorarlbergPIVRegulation: RBS 76% · level 11% · PIV 13% - 16:00Hydro Fehervar AV 19AVS
27%73%
HC Falkensteiner PustertalHCPRegulation: AVS 20% · level 15% · HCP 65% - 16:00Olimpija LjubljanaOLL
73%27%
Milano HCMHCRegulation: OLL 67% · level 13% · MHC 20% - 16:00Steinbach Black Wings LinzBWL
76%24%
FTC-TelekomFTCRegulation: BWL 70% · level 12% · FTC 18% - 17:30EC iDM Wärmepumpen VSVVSV
69%31%
HC TIWAG Innsbruck - Die HaieHCIRegulation: VSV 62% · level 15% · HCI 23% - 17:30EC-KACKAC
45%55%
HCB Südtirol AlperiaHCBRegulation: KAC 37% · level 16% · HCB 47%
Tue 27 Oct
Wed 28 Oct
- 18:30FTC-TelekomFTC39%61%Moser Medical Graz99ersG99Regulation: FTC 30% · level 16% · G99 53%
- 18:45Steinbach Black Wings LinzBWL82%18%HC TIWAG Innsbruck - Die HaieHCIRegulation: BWL 77% · level 11% · HCI 12%
- 19:15EC Red Bull SalzburgRBS55%45%Vienna CapitalsVICRegulation: RBS 47% · level 17% · VIC 36%
- 19:30Pioneers VorarlbergPIV12%88%Olimpija LjubljanaOLLRegulation: PIV 8% · level 8% · OLL 84%
- 19:45HCB Südtirol AlperiaHCB79%21%EC iDM Wärmepumpen VSVVSVRegulation: HCB 73% · level 12% · VSV 15%
Fri 30 Oct
- 18:30Moser Medical Graz99ersG9943%57%EC-KACKACRegulation: G99 35% · level 16% · KAC 49%
- 19:15Hydro Fehervar AV 19AVS16%84%HCB Südtirol AlperiaHCBRegulation: AVS 11% · level 10% · HCB 79%
- 19:15Olimpija LjubljanaOLL71%29%Vienna CapitalsVICRegulation: OLL 64% · level 14% · VIC 22%
- 19:45HC Falkensteiner PustertalHCP62%38%EC Red Bull SalzburgRBSRegulation: HCP 53% · level 16% · RBS 30%
- 19:45Milano HCMHC79%21%Pioneers VorarlbergPIVRegulation: MHC 73% · level 12% · PIV 15%
Sat 31 Oct
Sun 1 Nov
- 16:30EC Red Bull SalzburgRBS73%27%Hydro Fehervar AV 19AVSRegulation: RBS 65% · level 15% · AVS 20%
- 17:00Pioneers VorarlbergPIV34%66%FTC-TelekomFTCRegulation: PIV 26% · level 15% · FTC 59%
- 17:00Milano HCMHC34%66%Olimpija LjubljanaOLLRegulation: MHC 27% · level 14% · OLL 59%
- 17:30EC-KACKAC56%44%Steinbach Black Wings LinzBWLRegulation: KAC 49% · level 16% · BWL 36%
- 17:30HC TIWAG Innsbruck - Die HaieHCI27%73%HC Falkensteiner PustertalHCPRegulation: HCI 20% · level 14% · HCP 66%
- 17:30Moser Medical Graz99ersG9962%38%EC iDM Wärmepumpen VSVVSVRegulation: G99 53% · level 17% · VSV 30%
- 17:30Vienna CapitalsVIC30%70%HCB Südtirol AlperiaHCBRegulation: VIC 23% · level 15% · HCB 62%
Wed 11 Nov
Fri 13 Nov
- 18:30FTC-TelekomFTC63%37%Hydro Fehervar AV 19AVSRegulation: FTC 55% · level 16% · AVS 29%
- 19:15EC-KACKAC84%16%HC TIWAG Innsbruck - Die HaieHCIRegulation: KAC 80% · level 10% · HCI 11%
- 19:15Olimpija LjubljanaOLL70%30%EC Red Bull SalzburgRBSRegulation: OLL 63% · level 14% · RBS 23%
- 19:15Vienna CapitalsVIC40%60%Steinbach Black Wings LinzBWLRegulation: VIC 32% · level 16% · BWL 52%
- 19:30Pioneers VorarlbergPIV19%81%HC Falkensteiner PustertalHCPRegulation: PIV 13% · level 11% · HCP 76%
- 19:45HCB Südtirol AlperiaHCB71%29%Moser Medical Graz99ersG99Regulation: HCB 64% · level 14% · G99 21%
Sat 14 Nov
Sun 15 Nov
Win chances include overtime and shootouts. Hover the bar for the regulation split; click a game for its full preview.
Predicted vs actual71 finished games
Predicted vs actual 71
46 hit · 25 missed · 3 exact| 23 Oct 2026, 19:45 | MHCvsKAC | 37% | 2.9 – 3.8 | 2:3 | 2:3 | Hit★ | -1.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026, 19:30 | PIVvsHCB | 11% | 1.8 – 5.1 | 1:5 | 3:6 | Hit | +2.1 |
| 23 Oct 2026, 19:15 | OLLvsAVS | 88% | 4.8 – 1.8 | 4:1 | 2:3 | Miss | -1.6 |
| 23 Oct 2026, 19:15 | HCIvsRBS | 37% | 2.5 – 3.3 | 2:3 | 2:4 | Hit | +0.2 |
| 23 Oct 2026, 18:30 | G99vsBWL | 52% | 2.9 – 2.8 | 2:2 | 2:5 | Miss | +1.3 |
| 21 Oct 2026, 19:45 | HCBvsHCI | 84% | 4.5 – 2.0 | 4:1 | 6:0 | Hit | -0.5 |
| 21 Oct 2026, 19:45 | HCPvsPIV | 85% | 4.5 – 1.9 | 4:1 | 3:1 | Hit | -2.3 |
| 21 Oct 2026, 19:15 | BWLvsVIC | 61% | 3.3 – 2.6 | 3:2 | 4:1 | Hit | -0.9 |
| 21 Oct 2026, 19:15 | RBSvsOLL | 32% | 3.0 – 4.3 | 3:4 | 1:0 | Miss | -6.4 |
| 21 Oct 2026, 19:15 | KACvsAVS | 83% | 4.1 – 1.8 | 4:1 | 6:3 | Hit | +3.1 |
| 21 Oct 2026, 19:15 | VSVvsFTC | 54% | 3.2 – 2.9 | 3:2 | 4:1 | Hit | -1.1 |
| 21 Oct 2026, 18:30 | G99vsMHC | 59% | 3.0 – 2.5 | 2:2 | 5:3 | Hit | +2.6 |
| 18 Oct 2026, 18:00 | HCBvsBWL | 52% | 3.4 – 3.2 | 3:3 | 5:0 | Hit | -1.6 |
| 18 Oct 2026, 17:30 | HCIvsOLL | 21% | 2.4 – 4.5 | 2:4 | 2:5 | Hit | +0.0 |
| 18 Oct 2026, 17:00 | MHCvsAVS | 67% | 3.2 – 2.2 | 3:2 | 3:0 | Hit | -2.5 |
| 18 Oct 2026, 15:30 | FTCvsKAC | 26% | 2.6 – 4.4 | 2:4 | 3:2 OT | Miss | -2.0 |
| 18 Oct 2026, 13:30 | VSVvsHCP | 39% | 2.5 – 3.2 | 2:3 | 2:3 OT | Hit★ | -0.7 |
| 17 Oct 2026, 19:15 | VICvsPIV | 77% | 3.8 – 2.0 | 3:2 | 4:2 | Hit | +0.1 |
| 17 Oct 2026, 17:00 | MHCvsAVS | 69% | 3.2 – 2.1 | 3:2 | 3:4 OT | Miss | +1.7 |
| 16 Oct 2026, 19:45 | HCPvsHCI | 73% | 3.6 – 2.1 | 3:2 | 2:3 OT | Miss | -0.7 |
| 16 Oct 2026, 19:15 | OLLvsHCB | 53% | 3.6 – 3.4 | 3:3 | 5:4 | Hit | +2.0 |
| 16 Oct 2026, 19:15 | RBSvsBWL | 47% | 3.2 – 3.4 | 3:3 | 0:6 | Hit | -0.5 |
| 16 Oct 2026, 19:15 | KACvsVIC | 70% | 3.8 – 2.4 | 3:2 | 2:3 | Miss | -1.2 |
| 16 Oct 2026, 19:15 | VSVvsG99 | 45% | 2.5 – 2.8 | 2:2 | 2:4 | Hit | +0.7 |
| 16 Oct 2026, 18:30 | FTCvsPIV | 72% | 3.9 – 2.5 | 3:2 | 4:3 | Hit | +0.6 |
| 11 Oct 2026, 17:30 | HCIvsVSV | 39% | 2.6 – 3.2 | 2:3 | 3:2 OT | Miss | -0.8 |
| 11 Oct 2026, 17:30 | KACvsRBS | 63% | 3.8 – 2.9 | 3:2 | 5:3 | Hit | +1.4 |
| 11 Oct 2026, 17:00 | MHCvsHCB | 34% | 2.6 – 3.6 | 2:3 | 3:4 OT | Hit | +0.8 |
| 11 Oct 2026, 17:00 | PIVvsBWL | 20% | 2.3 – 4.5 | 2:4 | 1:4 | Hit | -1.8 |
| 11 Oct 2026, 16:00 | OLLvsFTC | 77% | 4.9 – 2.8 | 4:2 | 5:1 | Hit | -1.7 |
| 11 Oct 2026, 16:00 | AVSvsG99 | 30% | 1.8 – 2.9 | 1:2 | 2:3 OT | Hit | +0.3 |
| 11 Oct 2026, 16:00 | VICvsHCP | 41% | 2.5 – 3.1 | 2:3 | 3:2 | Miss | -0.6 |
| 09 Oct 2026, 19:45 | MHCvsHCI | 75% | 3.9 – 2.2 | 3:2 | 1:4 | Miss | -1.1 |
| 09 Oct 2026, 19:30 | PIVvsKAC | 13% | 1.9 – 4.8 | 1:4 | 4:5 SO | Hit | +2.3 |
| 09 Oct 2026, 19:15 | BWLvsHCP | 42% | 2.8 – 3.3 | 2:3 | 5:2 | Miss | +0.9 |
| 09 Oct 2026, 19:15 | AVSvsRBS | 37% | 2.2 – 3.0 | 2:3 | 1:6 | Hit | +1.8 |
| 09 Oct 2026, 19:15 | VSVvsHCB | 30% | 2.4 – 3.7 | 2:3 | 4:3 OT | Miss | +0.9 |
| 09 Oct 2026, 18:30 | G99vsOLL | 44% | 2.9 – 3.3 | 2:3 | 3:4 OT | Hit | +0.8 |
| 09 Oct 2026, 18:30 | FTCvsVIC | 46% | 3.0 – 3.2 | 2:3 | 3:2 | Miss | -1.2 |
| 04 Oct 2026, 17:30 | BWLvsKAC | 28% | 2.6 – 4.1 | 2:4 | 6:1 | Miss | +0.4 |
| 04 Oct 2026, 17:30 | VSVvsVIC | 52% | 2.8 – 2.7 | 2:2 | 3:4 OT | Miss | +1.5 |
| 04 Oct 2026, 17:00 | HCPvsAVS | 80% | 3.7 – 1.7 | 3:1 | 3:2 OT | Hit | -0.4 |
| 04 Oct 2026, 16:00 | OLLvsPIV | 82% | 4.9 – 2.4 | 4:2 | 8:0 | Hit | +0.7 |
| 04 Oct 2026, 16:00 | HCBvsFTC | 79% | 4.4 – 2.3 | 4:2 | 4:3 SO | Hit | +0.3 |
| 04 Oct 2026, 15:00 | RBSvsMHC | 42% | 2.8 – 3.3 | 2:3 | 5:2 | Miss | +0.8 |
| 03 Oct 2026, 17:30 | G99vsHCI | 68% | 3.4 – 2.2 | 3:2 | 3:0 | Hit | -2.6 |
| 02 Oct 2026, 19:45 | HCBvsKAC | 33% | 2.6 – 3.8 | 2:3 | 4:0 | Miss | -2.4 |
| 02 Oct 2026, 19:45 | HCPvsOLL | 48% | 3.4 – 3.5 | 3:3 | 4:2 | Miss | -0.9 |
| 02 Oct 2026, 19:30 | PIVvsRBS | 32% | 2.5 – 3.6 | 2:3 | 1:4 | Hit | -1.1 |
| 02 Oct 2026, 19:15 | VICvsHCI | 52% | 3.0 – 2.9 | 3:2 | 4:0 | Hit | -1.9 |
Showing 50 of 71 rows. Sort or filter to narrow the list.
Each row's prediction was built from the games played before that date only — nothing after it. Sort by Goals Δ or Call to find where the model went wrong. A ★ marks a game whose exact scoreline it also got right.
Biggest upsets
- OLLvsAVS
23 Oct 2026, 19:15 · predicted 88% home
2:3away won - VSVvsMHC
02 Oct 2026, 19:15 · predicted 23% home
7:2home won - MHCvsHCI
09 Oct 2026, 19:45 · predicted 75% home
1:4away won - FTCvsKAC
18 Oct 2026, 15:30 · predicted 26% home
3:2 OThome won - HCPvsHCI
16 Oct 2026, 19:45 · predicted 73% home
2:3 OTaway won
Games where the model was most confident in the side that lost.
Best calls
- PIVvsHCB
23 Oct 2026, 19:30 · predicted 11% home
3:6as predicted - PIVvsKAC
09 Oct 2026, 19:30 · predicted 13% home
4:5 SOas predicted - HCPvsPIV
21 Oct 2026, 19:45 · predicted 85% home
3:1as predicted - HCBvsHCI
21 Oct 2026, 19:45 · predicted 84% home
6:0as predicted - HCIvsHCB
27 Sept 2026, 17:30 · predicted 17% home
3:4as predicted
Confident calls that came in. Note these are cheap to collect — a good model should have many of them, which is why the upsets matter more.
Model vs betting market52 games
Model vs the betting market
52 games with closing odds| Measure | Model | Market | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner called right | 65.4% | 67.3% | −1.9 pp |
| Brier score | 0.216 | 0.206 | −0.010 |
| Log loss | 0.621 | 0.601 | −0.020 |
Both are scored on the same 52 games, using the same overtime coin flip, so the comparison is like-for-like. Odds are de-vigged by normalising the three reciprocals to 1. The market is better calibrated, which is the expected result — closing odds absorb injuries, line-ups and money this model never sees.
The flat-stake figure is a sanity check, not a strategy: the three-way price is on regulation time, so any game decided in overtime or a shootout loses the stake. Treat a positive number on a few hundred games as luck until it survives several seasons.
Accuracy and calibrationBrier 0.227
How well does this model do?
71 games scoredOnly 71 games have been scored so far this season — far too few to judge a model on. Switch to a finished season for a stable read.
- Home-only baseline
- Model
Table view
| Games scored | Home-only baseline | Model |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| 8 | 37.5% | 75.0% |
| 12 | 50.0% | 83.3% |
| 16 | 37.5% | 81.3% |
| 20 | 45.0% | 70.0% |
| 24 | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| 28 | 57.1% | 64.3% |
| 32 | 59.4% | 62.5% |
| 36 | 58.3% | 61.1% |
| 40 | 57.5% | 57.5% |
| 44 | 54.5% | 61.4% |
| 48 | 56.3% | 62.5% |
| 52 | 53.8% | 61.5% |
| 56 | 53.6% | 60.7% |
| 60 | 55.0% | 63.3% |
| 64 | 57.8% | 64.1% |
| 68 | 57.4% | 64.7% |
| 71 | 54.9% | 64.8% |
Both lines are cumulative, so they settle as the sample grows. The gap between them is the model's edge over the naive pick.
- Predicted
- Actual
Table view
| Predicted home win % | Predicted | Actual | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20–30 | 26% | 57% | 7 |
| 30–40 | 36% | 40% | 15 |
| 40–50 | 44% | 46% | 13 |
| 50–60 | 55% | 73% | 11 |
| 60–70 | 65% | 75% | 8 |
| 70–80 | 75% | 63% | 8 |
| 80–90 | 84% | 80% | 5 |
The two lines tracking each other means the probabilities can be taken at face value. Where "actual" sits above "predicted", the model is under-confident in the home side; below, it is over-confident. Check the game count before reading much into a bucket — the extremes hold far fewer games than the middle. Buckets with fewer than five games are left out.
Every game is predicted using only the games played before it — a walk-forward test, so these are the numbers the model would really have produced. The baseline is "always back the home side", priced at the home-win rate known at the time. Team strengths start from the 2025/26 final table.
How the prediction works
- Each team gets an attack and a defence multiplier from the goals it has scored and conceded, measured against the league average.
- A fixture's expected goals are the league's home (or away) scoring rate times the attacking team's attack times the defending team's defence — so home advantage comes out of fitting home and away separately, not from a bonus added on top.
- Both sides' goals are then treated as independent Poisson draws, which gives a probability for every scoreline rather than one guess, and from that the win, overtime and exact-score numbers.
- Rates are shrunk toward the prior with six games of weight, so an early 7-1 win does not make a team look unbeatable. This is why fixtures are marked low confidence until both teams have played a few games.
- Overtime and shootouts are treated as a coin flip. The feeds carry nothing that reliably predicts a shootout winner, and pretending otherwise would just be noise.
Goal models like this one capture scoring rates, not injuries, suspensions, travel, goalie rotation or roster changes. Treat the probabilities as a calibrated baseline, not a forecast.